What bad hires cost — and why the CV is where it starts

New Zealand, every year

Between $4.7bn and $16.6bn a year, and none of it on anyone’s books.

38.8% of new hires in New Zealand leave within twelve months — one in every 2.6. Across 608,000 hires a year, that is about 236,000 failed hires. Not bad people; relationships that did not last when both sides meant them to. One in 2.6 is a systemic failure we have normalised.

It keeps happening because very large decisions are made on very thin information. A CV written in a hurry says what someone has done and almost nothing about how they work, what they value, or what they want next. An interview adds an hour of performance; references arrive late and managed. That is not a hiring decision. It is an informed guess with a salary attached.

A Living Professional Identity is kept rather than assembled, so the evidence is written while it is still true. It is wider than roles and dates, so the things that predict a durable hire are in the record rather than lost to a format. It does not remove judgement from hiring. It gives that judgement something real to work with — and that is the gap the billions are falling through.

Put a price on each one

$4.72bn
At $20,000 per failed hire — advertising, agency fees and basic onboarding only.
$8.3 – 16.6bn
At half to one full average salary ($35,150 – $70,317), once lost productivity and management time are counted.
$33bn+
For specialists, clinicians, technology and executive roles, where replacement runs at two to three times salary.
2.4 – 8%
Of the entire $199.7 billion national payroll, burned on hires that do not survive a year.

Source: Lawson Williams, New Zealand Staff Turnover Survey; cost modelling on IRD wage and salary data for 2.84 million earners. Illustrative.

Now do the maths on fixing it

$470m – $1.65bn

saved every year if better information on both sides cut first-year turnover by just 10%.

$2.4bn – $8.3bn

if it halved it. No new levy, no new legislation — just better information in front of the people deciding. 38.8% should be a line in the sand.